Why Marriage Is Failing America's Poor (And Making Inequality Worse)

Economist Michael Tanner reveals why marriage rates are collapsing among the poor while staying stable for the wealthy—and what it means for America's future.

Sep 30, 2025

Transcript

Dear friends,

When economist Michael Tanner told me that men benefit from marriage while women face "a much bigger gamble," I laughed. Not at him, but at myself. "Of course women don't do as well," I said. "They have to live with us."

But beneath the laughter lies a troubling reality that Michael's research at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity reveals: We're becoming two Americas—one that marries and thrives, another that remains single and struggles.

If you're college-educated and earn above a certain income, you're almost certainly going to get married. Your divorce rate will be low. Your children will have opportunities. But if you're in the bottom 20% economically, you're increasingly likely to remain single, and if you do marry, you're far more likely to divorce.

The numbers Michael shared stopped me cold. In rural America—which has higher poverty rates than cities—we're seeing the collapse of traditional economic structures. When I told him about visiting Arkansas and seeing middle-class homes surrounded by garbage, occupied by laid-off Walmart workers in their 50s now addicted to opioids, he wasn't surprised. This is happening everywhere.

"Physical strength was the basic currency of survival," Michael explained. Now we're in an age of interpersonal relationships and cognitive work, yet our social systems—from welfare to divorce laws—still assume a male breadwinner model that no longer exists.

The shrinking pool of "marriageable men" creates what Michael calls an "un-virtuous sequence." Men without college degrees increasingly live with their parents, can't find stable work, and don't marry. This leads to more poverty, which makes them even less marriageable. Meanwhile, 1.5 million young Black men have been removed from the marriage pool by the criminal justice system.

Here in Fort Bragg, our food bank feeds 1,200 families monthly out of 7,500 residents. That's nearly half our town. The fishing is gone. The logging is finished. The mill closed.

When I asked Michael about the rise of single, uneducated, economically struggling men, he confirmed my fear:

"They're vulnerable to conspiracy theories, demagoguery, and violence. They pursue extreme ideologies on both left and right."

Yet Michael remains optimistic. Throughout history, he notes, we've adapted—from farms to factories, from manual labor to machines. But he acknowledges something critical: "If you're 55, you're not going to learn to code."

His closing thought reframed everything:

"Poverty is the natural state of man. We're all born poor. The question isn't what causes poverty—it's what creates prosperity."

At 86, having treated patients from every economic stratum for 65 years, I've never met anyone who truly wants to live on welfare. Humans need purpose. But we're creating a society where millions lack both purpose and possibility.

That's not just an economic crisis. It's an existential one.

Golden light,
Dr. Richard L. Miller

Links & Resources:

Michael Tanner's research: freopp.org
Michael Tanner’s Twitter

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